China and North Korea - split or splat?

WikiLeaks and its latest release of hundreds of cables sent by US diplomats have caused much speculation and confirmation of the nature of many bilateral relationships. One relationship in particular has produced mixed signals as to its direction - China's relationship to its neighbour North Korea (DPR Korea). A series of cables from US embassy staff in South Korea detailed how South Korean officials mentioned from some other diplomats who talked candidly to unnamed Chinese diplomats in places like Kazakhstan how the Chinese are quite annoyed with the North Koreans and even would like Korea to be reunified under Seoul's command. The Guardian ran with the angle that China is ready to ditch its ally: a line quickly followed by most of the World's media. The New York Times, however, took a more cautious, and ultimately wiser view that this does not mean China is about to break with its ostensibly Communist neighbour in favour of the encroachment of capitalism. North Korean-watchers, who were sidelined from this whole debate, were quick to dismiss the claims made in the cables as "South Korean wishful thinking". So who is correct then?

China's relationship with North Korea is not easy; however, it can be safely said that China is the last country to want DPR Korea to go. This relationship is much like the USA-Israel alliance. The USA finds Israel a troublesome ally who will not be pressured into doing things it doesn't want. Nevertheless, despite this 'annoyance' (i.e. the small guy not doing everything that the big guy tells it to do), the US won't suddenly ditch this important ally in favour of the Arabs. The same analogy can be said of China towards DPR Korea.

There is much history between the Koreans and the Chinese. Whether it be significant Chinese cultural influence over the centuries to Chinese involvement in the Korean war, there are very strong ties between the two neighbours. During the Cold War period DPR Korea played off the two antagonistic Communist superpowers - China and USSR - to ensure the provision of as much aid as possible (mainly weapons, technology and fuel). The 1960s in particular was a period when DPR Korea was closer to China, as Kim Il-sung joined with Mao Zedong in opposing the Soviet Union's de-Stalinisation and detente policies. Evidence of this renewed link with China was the then brief reappearance of Chinese characters (hanja) back into the (North) Korean language and how Korean policy mirrored that applied by the Chinese. For instance, China's Great Leap Forward starting in 1958 was the inspiration for DPR Korea's Chollima movement (which started soon after the Great Leap Forward though history books in North Korea now indicate a start year of 1956 to hide any parallels). DPR Korea also launched its own version of the Cultural Revolution in 1966, without ever finishing it. Kim Il-sung was recast as a playwright (as opposed to Mao being a poet) and that 'masterpiece revolutionary plays' supposedly written by the 'Great Leader' in his youth were 'rediscovered' and quickly became the staple form of mass entertainment. In following the Chinese pattern forced by Mao's wife Jiang Qing, these 'revolutionary plays' (with names like 'The Flower Girl' and 'Sea of Blood') were also adapted into 'revolutionary operas' and are still performed today. In fact, one Korean art troupe, named after the 'Sea of Blood' revolutionary opera, staged a tour of China this year performing a Chinese revolutionary opera. Relations between China and DPR Korea started to wane in the late 1960s when the Chinese Red Guards began to criticise Kim Il-sung, and later in the 1970s when China embarked on market reforms and normalised relations with the United States. DPR Korea then turned back to the USSR in the 1980s, but still kept the game going with China nonetheless to ensure the gravy train kept rolling. It has only been in the past two years though that the North Korean propaganda machine has gone back into full force to emphasise the 'eternal friendship' with China, mirroring the time when its large northern neighbour once again became North Korea's main source of foreign investment and aid. This coincided immediately after South Korea's end to its 'Sunshine Policy' with the election of current president, the conservative Lee Myung-bak.

So what's in it for China then? And why would they say such things, as claimed by South Korean and US diplomats? China has been under (supposed) intense pressure from the USA and Japan to coax the North Koreans to stop its nuclear weapons programme. The way this is being presented in the Western media is that this should be a straightforward matter and that it should only be natural that the Chinese follow US orders. Consequently the West is baffled as to why China won't pressure the North Koreans, even though it says it will, as acts quite shocked when the Chinese show restraint or even defend its ally. Of course, the Chinese point of view is never taken into account here, which is the norm in the myopic and selfish mindset displayed by Western officials. Basically China will not be pressured by the West to act against its own interests. As this Chinese website attests, Beijing will not be working in the interests of countries it sees as ultimately plotting against it - namely the USA and Japan. However, China is willing to say the nice things to please these countries but not follow through with them - that is part of the diplomacy game. Hence why that Chinese official may have said to the South Korean that it would like Seoul to take over the North.

Claims made that China wants Korea to be reunified by the South are obviously South Korean wishful thinking. The last thing China wants is to have a nationalistic American ally in the form of a reunified Korea bordering a sensitive part of China that is populated with a large Korean population. Later calls for these Korean-populated areas to join Korea could threaten China's territorial integrity; something Beijing has proven in areas like Tibet and Xinjiang that it's willing to do anything to avoid. As well, by having a US ally on its border is seen as a potential launching pad for the spread of anti-Communist Party activities within China. There's also a humanitarian aspect to this reunification in that many North Koreans who would be totally bewildered by the capitalist changes that a Seoul-ruled, reunified Korea would impose, or the fear of retribution for having been a Korean Worker's Party member, that a huge influx of political refugees into the comparative system-familiarity of China could happen. China does not relish the prospect of potentially millions of Koreans pouring into their country. So having a reliant neighbour that can be annoying but does the right thing by paying 'tribute' to China like it should (in Chinese eyes), is a far better prospect than having a Seoul-lead Korea destabilising Communist Party-led China as how the South Koreans and its US and Japanese allies would have in store. Actually, what I see would be the best scenario for China would be Korea reunified under the rule of the North's Korean Worker's Party and then adopting the Chinese 'socialist market economy' model - but this is as unlikely as the South taking the North now.

So do not expect there will be any breakthrough by the Chinese to get the North Koreans to give up their nuclear weapons or that Seoul gains control all the way to the Chinese border. It's a case of 'better the devil you know'.