At the end of the day... saying it as it is

The US State Department cables published by Wikileaks have shown the true face behind the sweet talk and spin that characterises diplomacy and international politicis. An interesting and frank conversion was reported by the US embassy in Paris with an official of the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Roland Galharague, which gives a true and blunt account about Serbia's aspirations for EU membership and Kosovo.

Historically, the French have been keen allies of the Serbs, with Jacques Chirac being initially against the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia in 1999, for instance. However, with Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence in 2008, France forsake Serbia's pleas and recognised the fledgling state. Despite much legal wrangling over the legitimacy of Kosovo's independence, the Serbs have found that their case being rebuked by large international organisations and legal institutions. However, as Galharague stated to the Americans, Serbian Foreign Minister Jeremic "seems to believe Serbia can win on Kosovo and win EU entry. We need to let him know this is not true". So no matter what Serbia does, it won't win anyway.

Serbia's current 'pro-western' government maintains eventual EU membership as its primary goal. However, the fact that Serbia claims Kosovo as a constituent part even though effectively it's now a separate, independent entity recognised as such by 22 out of the EU's 27 member states, and the legal ambiguity this creates, makes EU accession near impossible. In true 'carrot and stick' style, the EU superficially maintains the position that the issues of Kosovo and Serbian entry into the EU are not formally linked. However, this concept is beleived by no one, but still, rather naively, that they are fooling the Serbs nonetheleess. The State Department cable reveals that Western diplomats and Serb politicians alike know that there are no illusions. "There was no formal conditionality," Galharague said, adding that the Serbs now understand that to be a member of the EU they must eventually recognize Kosovo. "We told them we do not want another Cyprus," he explained, referring to Cyprus' controversial EU accession in 2004 as a divided island where EU legislation remains partly "suspended" in the northern part of the island which is outside of the government in Nicosia's control. Nonetheless, Galharague predicted the Serbs will likely go ahead with the U.N. resolution in any case, and the USG and the EU will be forced to oppose it.

So why do they keep on playing the public with this idea that Kosovo and EU membership are not linked when essentially they are for Serbia? Well, it's to ensure that the EU and Serbian government can impose what otherwise would be unpopular changes, all with the cynical excuse that 'this is a long-term good in preparation for EU membership'. The image is sold that EU membership will mean the dawning of an age of immense and immediate prosperity. However, the reality has shown that this is far from the case. Just ask anyone in Greece and Ireland, let alone Bulgaria and Romania as to what prosperity EU membership has bestowed them.

Nevertheless, the reality is that Serbia will not join the EU. Serbia, by its very nature and core identity cannot see Kosovo ever being separated again, even though essentially it already has. Along with this reality is Galharague's blunt but honest claim that "At the end of the day, though, Serbia must recognize Kosovo if it wants to join the EU". I can tell you now Galharague, that's just not going to happen. That's if, unless, some Serbian premier wants a bullet to his head like Zoran Djindjić.