Eurovision 2012 in Baku, Azerbaijan... what could go wrong?

Azerbaijan's first lady, Mehriban, prez Ilham and the family (behind) have gone all Eurovision with the sequins to welcome you to THEIR country

As you are most likely very well aware by now, Azerbaijan is the winner of this year's Eurovision Song Contest held last Saturday night. Of course, one of the 'prizes' is getting to host the competition the following year, which for a country desperate for (good) publicity such as Azerbaijan is the perfect event to be the centre of attention in Europe and worldwide with a huge TV audience of 125 million. Hosts in the past have successfully showcased their country as a tourist destination and a place of culture. This 3-hour ad has been the driving force for countries like Azerbaijan to invest heavily in their Eurovision entries in recent years, and for the authorities in Baku, they finally got their return. But are they really aware of what they are about to face?

Only a matter of hours after Azerbaijan won the contest, I was interviewed by the BBC World Service to discuss what implications Baku hosting the Eurovision will have. Unfortunately, due to nature of the questions posed to me and time constraints, I did not end up getting a chance to tackle the meatier and more divisive issues that I will go into detail later in this post. Actually, I was shocked that the world news journalist who interviewed asked me the rather naive, highly uninformed and somewhat colonialist question of whether Azerbaijan can actually afford to the host the event? I mean... honestly! Scarily enough, this question is not an isolated case. Many people in the West have a rather stereotypical view of any country past Vienna being some sort of cesspool of poverty that only survive because us Westerners give them money. OK, so some countries would find it hard to afford to host the Eurovision (as was almost case with Estonia in 2001, Latvia in 2002 and Ukraine 2005), however Azerbaijan is not one of them. And it's not automatic that the poorer nations would have difficulty paying to host the contest anyway - Serbia did a fine job in 2008 and not once did it plead to the EBU for cash. Azerbaijan's case, though, is that like Russia - it is flushed with oil money. Azerbaijan is a large oil producer and is also an important (i.e. the only non-Russian and non-Iranian) transit link for plentiful oil and gas supplies from Central Asia. The country is rich, but as is often the case in many resource-rich nations, this does not necessarily mean that this wealth trickles down to the masses. Most Azerbaijanis live at or below the poverty line and can only dream of experiencing the glitz and glamour that the now ruling (former Communist Party member-careerist) elite live.

Is the Azerbaijani capital ready for a gay old time?

Money is no problem for Azerbaijan hosting Eurovision. So what could go wrong then? Well, Azerbaijan really has no idea about Eurovision Song Contests and its core fan base. The Eurovision Song Contest in most Eastern European countries is considerably mainstream and has none of the associations it has in many Western European countries. In particular, most Eastern Europeans are completely unaware how much the contest has a huge and loyal gay fan base. So can you imagine the surprise Azerbaijan will face when they realise that the overwhelming number of Eurovision fans who will be turning up to Baku for the 2 weeks of Eurovision preparations, rehearsals and shows are not a whole bunch of men who have left their wives behind but gay men with their partners? They really don't know. Azerbaijan, like many Eastern European countries, is rather traditional and parochial, with a strong macho culture that has been fuelled by recent military conflict, officially-sanctioned nationalist tension and a re-emergence of traditional Islamic religious practice. Needless to say, Azerbaijan is not the place to be if you are proud and gay. This is a place where hotels will change bookings for gay couples for a room with one king-sized bed to two singles. The issue of gay rights, especially considering the Eurovision's large gay following, has been in the forefront at Eurovisions ever since Moscow held the event in 2009. Nikolai Alekseev, Russia's most prominent gay activist, with the help of counterparts from Western Europe, organised a gay pride parade to coincide with the Eurovision in Moscow. Unfortunately, the parade was violently dispersed, resulting in the arrest of its participants and rather unwelcoming images of Russia being shown around the world. Now, will the same happen in Azerbaijan next year?

Of course, this all depends on whether the fans can actually make it to Azerbaijan. As a majority of the foreigners who travel to Azerbaijan are usually involved with the oil industry, the few flights to Baku are extremely expensive. This is no different for other oil boom cities around the world (such as Astana in Kazakhstan, Luanda in Angola or Lagos in Nigeria). Likewise, the hotel and foreign expat infrastructure in Baku caters mainly for the oil industry, which means plenty of overpriced 5-star hotels, very little in the way of cheap accommodation, and expensive restaurants and bars (like 'Irish Pubs'). The foreigners Baku's taxi drivers and hospitality staff are used to are cashed-up oil workers on company expense accounts who don't care about being charged many times more than the local rate, and not Eurovision fanboys on meager wages (but try convincing them that when the Azeris still are paid far less). Essentially, the fans will be facing the same financial scenario as with Moscow 2009.

What will the Azeri grannies have to say about the fanboys?

OK, so what if the Eurovision fanboys have saved the money and made it to Baku and are not going to make a big thing about the gay issue. What else could they face? Well, Azerbaijan's political situation could get in the way. Like many ex-Soviet republics, Azerbaijan is still going through a period of democratisation, which means that the authorities are still not confident enough yet to be able to ignore the people who advocate change (as is the case in the West). Following independence from the USSR in 1991, Azerbaijan was ruled by former KGB boss Heydar Aliyev, who from his base in the exclave of Naxçivan was able to consolidate power by keeping much of the existing Soviet-era structure intact. He placed close family members in positions of power, with his son Ilham heading SOCAR, the powerful, government-owned oil company central to the country's economy. A cult of personality, which basically filled the void left after Lenin was dropped at independence, grew around the 'benevolent father of the nation'. The Eurovision fans will arrive at Baku's 'Heydar Aliyev Airport', for instance. It is no coincidence that at the press conference following their Eurovision win, Eldar and Nigar first of all thanked their benevolent president and head of the 'Heydar Aliyev Fund' - the president's wife, for their win! (Can you imagine if they didn't!?) So when Heydar died in 2003, his son llham unsurprisingly took over the presidency in elections that were deemed to be 'not fair' by foreign observers. The Aliyevs have been subject to various gossipy US cables published by Wikileaks. To get a taste of the level of gangsterism and corruption ruling Azerbaijan, have a read of this link about the scandalous dealings of some of Azerbaijan's well-connected families. Even more scandalous has been the behaviour and consequent US State Department gossip about Azerbaijan's first lady, the ever-smiling Mehriban Aliyeva. There's talk of her plastic surgery, her 'charity' work and provocative fashions - check it out here! She was also rumoured of having an affair with Belarusan president Lukashenko! Perhaps she can sing 'I Love Belarus'.

President Aliyev: We're gonna put the wind machine here

The Aliyevs have held a tight reign over Azerbaijan, with the small but fragmented opposition facing arrests and bureaucratic hassles. With the tacit support of the West, the Aliyevs have been able to get away without getting major negative press in the West. So long as the oil rushes through, everyone's happy. However, the Azeri authorities have been uneasy viewing the swift outcomes from recent popular revolutions against similarly-ruled autocracies such as their former close friend Egypt (Mehriban Aliyeva and Egypt's first lady Suzanne Mubarak even appeared in a naff video clip in a pop song about peace - check it out here, if you're brave). The similarities between Egypt and Azerbaijan have alerted the Aliyevs into action to prevent the same fate that has become of the Mubaraks. This means that bloggers have been arrested, tried and sentenced to jail sentences, and access to blog portals severely restricted. The social network tools that helped mobilised protesters in Tunisia and Egypt - Facebook and Twitter - have also been restricted in Azerbaijan, and there are also threats of Skype being curtailed too. This leaves to question - how will the media, especially the huge number of Eurovision bloggers who constantly update with details of rehearsals during the contest's two weeks of preparations be able to do their work? How will the Azeri authorities balance allowing the foreigners to have unrestricted access to essential Internet tools like Twitter or Blogger, while still keeping the lid on the local access? Any restriction placed on the media will be quickly reported to the rest of Europe, painting the negative picture of Azerbaijan that the authorities desperately want to avoid and had not wanted by hosting the event. The huge influx of journalists will also be a great opportunity for opposition politicians and activists to gain some much needed publicity. It will be interesting how the Azeri authorities will deal with this.

In jail - for blogging in Azerbaijan

There is another aspect that will come to the forefront - the ongoing and blood-thirsty animosity between Azerbaijan and its eastern neighbour Armenia over the region of Nagornyy Karabakh. The two countries went to war with each other in 1988 when they were still constituent Soviet republics over the then 'autonomous oblast', an Armenian-majority populated region wholly within Azerbaijan. Karabakh's Armenian population, with support from Armenia, wanted to separate from Azerbaijan and join Armenia. Azerbaijan did not want to see this happen as the region had a significant Azeri population and would have meant losing territory. However, the underlying tensions stems from the time when Armenians claim that the Ottoman Turks waged genocide on them during World War I. Of course, the Armenian interpretation of who is a Turk is quite broad, so they see the Turkic-speaking, Shiite Muslim, Persian-influenced Azeris (who were never part of the Ottoman Empire) no different from the Sunni Muslim Turks of the modern Republic of Turkey. This is despite the fact that a 'Turk' in the Ottoman Empire was anyone who was Muslim, regardless whether they spoke Turkish or not, and that the Republic of Turkey is not (politically) the successor state of the Ottoman Empire. The Armenian fear that another 'genocide' will occur (they point to Armenian pogroms in the Azerbaijani city of Sumqayit in 1988 as proof) has given themselves the justification to not only declare independence for Karabakh as a separate Armenian state (recognised by no-one except other unrecognised statelets within the ex-USSR) but also to occupy a large swathe of Azerbaijani territory between Armenia and Karabakh. By the time a fragile ceasefire was negotiated in 1992, 1 million Azeris had been ethnically cleansed from those parts of Azerbaijan occupied by Armenian forces.

Despite the ceasefire and the ongoing status-quo, there is no love lost between Azerbaijan and Armenia. In fact, the level of animosity and hatred between the two neighbours is to such an extent that there is still sporadic gunfire on the front line resulting in a constant number of casualties each year. Like in most conflicts, there is still a lot of bravado and macho chest-beating officially encouraged by the authorities in both countries with constant nationalistic calls to recapture lost lands and avenge for lost honour and pride. On a human level, the welfare of Azerbaijan's 1 million internally displaced persons is of great concern. After almost 20 years of being forced from their homes, many still are housed in primitive conditions with little access to social services, basic amenities or having much chance of enjoying the country's new-found oil wealth. Hopefully their plight will grab some attention come time for next year's Eurovision. However, I feel that they will only be used in much the same way they have been by the Azerbaijani authorities in using their suffering in prolonging the hatred towards the Armenians for causing this human catastrophe. This nationalist hatred is used by both sides to control their peoples and as a smokescreen to the true (and much shared) ills of Azerbaijani and Armenian modern society (corruption, croneyism, lack of opportunities etc.)

Of course, with this in mind, Armenia is livid that their nemesis Azerbaijan has won the Eurovision. Armenia too has been wanting desperately to win the competition, much for the same reasons as Azerbaijan - to draw attention to their side of the conflict and to piss off their perceived enemies. Well, Azerbaijan now will draw attention to their side of the conflict and piss off their perceived enemies. I expect that much will be said of 'Armenian aggression' and of Karabakh at the Eurovision, especially in the postcards. Watch out for them! You won't miss them.

Armenian soldier on the Karabakh frontline

With this level of hate, it's more than likely that Armenia will withdraw from next year's contest. The only way I can see Armenia being motivated on going to Baku would be with the firm belief that they are going to win it, because nothing else would be sweeter for them to see the Armenians winning on Azeri turf in front of an Azeri crowd. There's nothing like spite. We'll wait and see what happens.

There is also one other aspect that will factor when it comes to staging the contest next year - Azerbaijan's time zone. Eurovision rules state that the semi-finals and final have to start at 21:00 Central European Time. Azerbaijan is three hours ahead, which means that the concerts will be starting at midnight local time! Considering the final goes on for over three hours, people won't be getting out of the venue until around 4am! Imagine having to travel at that time. The taxi drivers will be rubbing their hands.

Despite all of the negative aspects of Azerbaijan hosting Eurovision, and the moral question about supporting a regime that restricts gay rights and the freedom of speech and expression, I believe that this is the type of event that Azerbaijan needs. While the Azeri authorities will be wanting to present to Europe its image of itself, the fact that a large number of foreigners, especially gay people, converging on Baku and getting a chance to meet Azeris and discovering this fascinating country will do wonders. Azeris and people from the rest of Europe making contacts will only strengthen understanding between peoples, break down stereotypes and open people to different points of view. Furthermore, Azerbaijan has so much to show the world. It is not the cultural backwater that Cold War and colonial perceptions would lead us to believe. For instance, Baku was the 5th largest city in the USSR, extremely cosmopolitan, and most of all, was the Soviet Union's foremost centre for jazz. This mixture of Turkic, Persian, Russian and indigenous Caucasian influences makes the country a crossroads with a multifaceted culture. It would be fabulous if world-famous Azerbaijani musicians such as jazz singer Aziza Mustafazade, traditional muqam performer Alim Qasimov or traditional musician Alihan Samedov can do the interval... though I fear that Ilham Aliyev's son-in-law, the dismal Emin will end up having a big role. Emin lavishly launched his English-language pop career in London earlier this year, complete with expensive promotions and a blitz ad campaign with his face on posters around the London Underground. Needless to say, it has amounted to not much.

World-famous Azerbaijani jazz singer, Aziza Mustafazade

Good luck Azerbaijan! I hope that the next 12 months preparing for the Eurovision will contribute to the transformation of the country into one that its citizens would be worthy of being proud of even more.