The finale! Seriously! Finally it’s happening.
Aliyevstan... oops, Azerbaijan is waiting with the baited
breath of a Eurovision fanboy in anticipation of this Saturday when 100 million
people throughout the world get to see the glitz and chintz of Baku. Saturday
promises to be quite a spectacular on this account, with the organisers’ goal
(headed by the president’s plastic fantastic wife Mehriban Aliyeva) for outsiders
to see Aliyevy Azerbaijan in their rose-coloured, PR-honed image. More on that
later.
The second semi-final on Thursday, like the first on
Tuesday, went past quite quickly – no wasting time to be had. I have to say
that I am more than happy that my darling Kaliopi, representing Macedonia, was
able to qualify for the final. That more than balanced the sad feeling of
Bulgaria’s Sofi Marinova failing to do likewise, despite her amazing efforts.
It’s a shame that the televoters and juries are now so needing some visual
distraction these days rather than having a singer belt out a good song in an
amazing voice, as was Sofi’s performance. An unfortunate, and yet scarily expected result from Sofi's failure to qualify has been for Bulgarians to vent their anger through anti-Roma comments on forums (Sofi Marinova is Roma). Disgusting!
I predicted 7 out of the 10 finalists in the end.
Slovakia pulled off a credible performance, but as I said previously, the crowd
that appreciates that type of music doesn’t watch Eurovision. Estonia’s Ott,
who made it through with a ballad sung in Estonian, seemed to be going for the
high note even when there shouldn’t be one. Serbia’s Željko Joksimović
qualified easily, though his smugness is starting to grate. Still in disbelief
that a little bit of fancy footwork was all that was required to get Malta’s David
Schwimmer lookalike Kurt Calleja through to the grand finale. I did find Turkey’s
Can Bonomo to be under par, but as I also predicted, he did get through with
help from the Balkans. And unlike most Eurovision fanboys, I was correct in
predicting that Slovenia would fail to qualify – Eva Boto needed the ex-Yugo
vote, but up against big names and performing in Slovenian just wasn’t going to
work.
Macedonia's Kaliopi. Is 22 now her lucky number?
Before I go on to predict my top 10, let’s go through the final six songs by the ‘Big Five’ automatic qualifiers and the host nation, Azerbaijan.
1. UK
Engelbert Humperdink – Love Will Set You Free
Engelbert Humperdink – Love Will Set You Free
The BBC’s decision to get a pop legend of the ranks of
Engelbert Humperdink is, in the words of another blogger, either pure genius or
a complete disaster. I was gladly surprised at this choice, especially after
Blue’s debacle last year, whose appearance at Eurovision confirmed the general
consensus in the UK that Eurovision is a guaranteed pop career graveyard.
Humperdink has always been one not to take himself seriously. I remember when
in the mid 90s during the dance music craze he released a CD of remixes of his
biggest hits, with the cover set to high camp. By appearing at Eurovision, Humperdink
has nothing to lose, and opens the door to a boost in his career by becoming
known to a new, younger demographic that has never heard of him. Wise choice
(thanks to his son – who happens also to be his manager). I also have to admit
that I have been to one of his concerts ... well, worked as an usher at one.
This was the late 1990s. Still, a rather older crowd, and although the Hump
would have been around the same age as them, he was looking mighty better. Not
sure if it was staged or real but there were younger girls in the front row
throwing panties at him, and one of the girls even jumped on stage at the end
to hug her star in polyester glory. Still, the staging was spectacular and the
audience went home rather pleased that they had been transported back to the
sixties for a few hours.
The song itself will appeal to that same older
demographic, and coming first, it might get forgotten by voting starts after 25
more songs! Still, going by his legendary superstar status, and it’s not just
the younggins watching, I can see the Hump making it to around 10th
place.
2. FRANCE
Anggun – Echo
You know when a delegation feels that its song is not
doing that well when they have to resort to homoeroticism. This is one.
Indonesian-born Anggun is one gorgeous 38 years old. Her song is competent as
much as four songs moulded together and not going anyway can be. However, with
a video clip that features Red Army-esque soldiers in their white underwear,
and a stage performance featuring three male gymnasts (when in one rehearsal
these said gymnasts removed their tops, the Eurovision blogosphere went into
meltdown), you know subconsciously that things aren’t going well. I remember
how Greece in 1996 with Marinella Efstrathiou’s ‘We Turn Our Springs Into
Summer’ folly also tapped into the ‘gay element’, or just look at how well such
gay disco numbers like Iceland 2010 or Hungary 2011 did in the end. It’s just
the sign of imminent failure, which is unfortunate as Anggun is a lovely
person. Oh well, no need to book the tickets for Paris in May then.
3. ITALY
Nina Zilli – Out of Love
Classy! OK, so it’s got a bit of Amy Winehouse about
it... well... she wasn’t exactly original in her music style anyway. Nina, who
is supported by a 42 (!) member delegation, has been decked out in Vivienne
Westwood couture ever since arriving in Baku, which has led other delegations
to ask where is the money coming from (how Aliyev family of them). In any case,
Nina has a class act of a song here, which is very much at the same level as
last year’s surprise second place getter from Italy. Pity that it’s on 10th
on the night, but still it’s a definite top 10, though I could see this get top
5 even.
Italy's Nina Zilli in her glad rags. It's Vivienne Westwood, no less. Austerity anyone?
4. AZERBAIJAN
Sabina Babayeva – When The Music Dies
With a song title like that, you’re opening the door
to innuendo. Azerbaijan has stuck to the same Swedish team that wrote its last
two entries (must have got the group rate), but this time the arrangement has
tacked in some token Azerbaijani elements that make it rather twee. Babayeva
performed at the Eurovision in Concert in Amsterdam last month with a version
that was partly in Azeri. This allowed her to tap into her jazz roots. She will
be performing this in English though, which I feel limits Babayeva. Azerbaijan
has a strong jazz tradition, so this would have been a great chance to show
this off, especially with someone as talented as Babayeva. However, I can’t see
this song scoring a hat trick for the hosts. Obviously being once-off in the
spotlight is enough now for Mehriban Aliyeva.
5. SPAIN
Pastora Soler – Quédate conmigo
OK, when I heard that Pastora Soler, a flamenco and
copla singer, was selected to represent Spain, I was thinking that we may be
getting something like Azucar Moreno’s song from 1990 again. So you can imagine
how disappointed I was to hear that Soler would be singing some boring ballads.
Blah! That was until I saw her perform live in Amsterdam. If she pulls off what
I saw there, we could be looking at the winner. It has a long note with a
climax to boot! This is the type of song that wins a Pop-Idol competition.
Along with coming 19th on the night (around the same position where
most of the latest winners have performed), it would take some bad notes or
staging for this not to do well. Must add that Spain’s gays are right behind
this song, so that’s a good sign too.
6. GERMANY
Roman Lob – Standing Still
Again, I forgot this song so I’m having a quite listen
through so as to jog the dementia. So far, it sounds quite good in that Justin
Timberlake meets Jason Mraz way. So it’s a bit 2006 then, which makes it
ultra-modern for Eurovision standards. But, as is the case with most stuff
written by Jamie Cullum, it’s just a little too dull. I don’t think we’ll be
seeing this on the left-hand side of the scoreboard.
Now, who are my top ten predictions, and why?
Germany's Roman Lob. Will the nice boy get the prize this time?
As the crystal ball (not hall) is still with the pawnbroker, and the Turkish Coffee cups are only pointing to their namesake country (such patriotic grinds), I will just have to stab in the dark them. I’ll probably get it all wrong, though I was surprised that I actually predicted most of the top ten last year, and was pleasantly surprised at the ones who had done well (Italy, in particular) who I had pretty much written off.
10. UK – Just because it’s the Hump. The grannies with nothing better to do will love him as they always have. Lucky he’s on first, so he’ll be fresh in their memories.
9. Turkey – It’s Turkey, that’s why. It’ll get votes from the Balkans, but especially so from western European nations that didn’t qualify but home to large diaspora communities such as Switzerland, Austria, Netherlands and Belgium. Plus, no Armenia in the mix, so no competition from their army of dextrous SMS-ers.
8. Ireland – Even if their stage performance this year is complete bargain basement with 95% off compared to their iconic, Warhol-esque light extravaganza last year (I swear you can pick up the twins’ water feature from a good garden centre for $50), and despite being painfully annoying and can’t sing (thank you back-up singers), the public will love them, especially kids. I can’t see them doing better than 8th place though.
7. Macedonia – OK, so you may be thinking I’m rating her far too high here. Seriously, I want Kaliopi to win the event, but I am being realistic of sorts. Besides, a Kaliopi win would probably cause me to have a heart attack, so probably not a good thing healthwise. Kaliopi will do well because of the draw and the recognition she is gaining. Judging by the comments on forums and the reporting in the media throughout the Yugosphere, Kaliopi is the one! I am in blissful disbelief at the amount of praise she has been receiving for her performance, and this performing in the dreaded second position on Thursday’s semi-final. Kaliopi will be getting some serious points from the Yugosphere and surrounding countries, so she’s not one to be discounted.
6. Italy – Alluding to the style of Audrey Hepburn in the 1960s, and a great voice and song to team with the theme, Nina Zilli will do well to get sixth. If any of the next five performers go awry, then put her top 5 then.
5. Sweden – Even though I found her singing to be rather poor, and her performance to be self-indulgent and disengaging, I will be a sucker for hype here. I have to admit that my gut feeling is that she won’t do this well, but I also can’t ignore that there is so much hype surrounding her. Plus, the Scandinavian countries have to vote for someone, so who else will it be then?
Sweden's Loreen doing her homage to Kate Bush dancing.
4. Ukraine – Gaytana will be the penultimate number of the night. Considering how well Ukraine did last year at around the same position last year, be it with the sand artist as the true star, this number will be sure to wake anyone up who has nodded off after so many songs, or the alcohol will have truly kicked in for the ‘la-la-la’ lyrics to be become the signal for delusional latent singing talent to manifest itself.
3. Russia – The grandmothers of Buranovo, buoyed by their recent awarding of the title of ‘People’s Artist of the Republic of Udmurtia’ (I’m not kidding! Also means they will be receiving a pension increase for life!), will warm into most viewers’ hearts. No other act has garnered as much international media attention at Eurovision since Dana International in 1998. This will be a huge plus for them. Some pundits have said that having them performed 6th on the night will cost them, but I disagree. They will set a standard, which will be even more pronounced considering how slow or dire the first five songs are, which will then be used as a barometer for the following songs. Also, using such scientific methods as assessing what casual Eurovision viewers are saying on Facebook, these pastry-cooking ladies of song are in line to take out the televote. The only thing I see that is stopping them getting the dust collector...oops, I mean the grand prix, are the juries. Though the rumour has it that they won the first semi-final, this may be a sign that it could be St. Petersburg next year for the Eurovision jamboree.
2. Serbia – Mr Eurovision himself, Željko Joksimović, cruised his way into the final without batting an eyelid and with his new wife and co-presenter of Eurovision 2008, Jovana, by his side (believe me, it was just teeth, teeth, teeth). The cockiness about him points to two things. First, to be so sure of things, my suspicious mind thinks that he knows something, like this is a done deal of sorts. Or, he just is really that confident. In any case, his smirk and attitude is even getting Serbs, let alone his core ex-Yugo points-givers off side. Of course, the rest of Europe only gets to deal with el Joksimović at every second or so Eurovision, so they are taking to this song like flies to shit. Along with his great position coming towards the end of the show just before voting starts, and the pretentiousness of the song, he is starting to live up the Serbian media hype of being an ‘apsolutni favorit’. I also see Europe also relenting, having realised that the only way to put the continent out of the misery of having to deal with the same old Joksimović song a la Eurovision, we just have to vote for him to win. To be a fly in the ointment, I will have to say that Mr Željko will just have to contend with the silver medal (hey, silver goes with everything). It will only mean that we’ll be seeing him again sometime down the road.
The winner? Spain's Pastora Soler
1. Spain – OK, I am going out on a limb here, but seeing Pastora perform in Amsterdam just said ‘winner’ to me. Naturally, she may have the most hideous fashion ensemble on her, or the expertos at Spanish TV decide that she needs some inappropriate hip hop dancers around her to destroy her chances, but at the moment I’m back Miss Soler for the win. Now, let’s look at this in conspiracy terms. The EBU did mention that they wanted to return the Eurovision to being a TV show rather than the huge stadium event it is now, which is something that would appeal to the host broadcaster in a country facing massive budget cuts... like Spain. Then there was the widely-reported story that got out that the Spanish singer said that she has been instructed to do everything in her power not to win the competition. We know have the situation that the Spanish delegation, Spain’s media reps, and Miss Soler herself claiming that she was misquoted and this is not the case. Me thinks this ‘misquote’ seems to be a fabulous media campaign to get some free publicity for the Spanish singer (such stories are not usually just ‘made up’ like that). Ryanair does this all the time! There is the potential for this to backfire much like in Big Brother where popular contestants who make it well known that they want to leave are voted off, we could see some televoters otherwise not voting for Spain so as to help Pastora not win the competition. Nevertheless, this has added another political and topical dimension to what others would dismiss as some superfluous kitschfest.
'We are the winners of Eurovision'. Azerbaijan's Aliyev family.
So I have pretty much stuffed things up here with my predictions. But this is the easy part. What is toughest though is that when we are watching the proceedings from Baku, while seeing all those pretty postcards showing how lovely things are in Azerbaijan, pay a thought to all those poor Azerbaijanis who are having to put up with high levels of corruption, nepotism, organised crime, low-level healthcare and education, and will be lucky if they even get to see the event on TV if they have paid their high bills while surviving on 300 euros a month. Think about the gay people in Azerbaijan who live in fear. Keep in mind that the Crystal Hall was constructed primarily by sub-contracting companies owned by family of the Azerbaijan’s president, Ilham Aliyev’s wife, Mehriban Aliyeva. La Aliyeva, no surprise, was the chairperson of this year’s Eurovision organising committee, all the while finding the time to hold such a role while also being a member of parliament (elected with 94% of the vote!), head of a charity foundation named after her late father-in-law, the former president of Azerbaijan, Heydar Aliyev, who was also once a KGB chief responsible for the arrest and death of many political prisoners during Soviet times. Do the Azerbaijanis a favour by boycotting Emin, who will be performing during the half-time this Saturday. Emin just happens to be a popstar (Azerbaijan’s best, they would make you believe), but isn’t it a coincidence that this dire crooner also happens to be married to the president’s daughter. And while we are talking about keeping things in the (Aliyev) family, Emin’s wife, Leyla Aliyeva, who happens, among other things, to be the editor-in-chief of the English-language Baku lifestyle magazine, is also the part owner (with her sister Arzu Aliyeva) of Azercell, Azerbaijan’s largest mobile operator and, surprise, surprise, this year’s major sponsor of Eurovision. The other main sponsor, the Azerbaijani state-owned oil and gas company SOCAR, otherwise known as the Aliyev slush fund, used to be headed by the current president Ilham Aliyev when his father Heydar was ruling the roost. Ilham then took over the reins after his father died in elections deemed to be unfair by observers, and has held the top job since. Pay a thought too to the Azerbaijani investigative reporter Khadija Ismayilova, whose tireless work has been to expose the corruption involving the ruling family, only for Azerbaijan’s authorities to attempt to blackmail her into silence by releasing secret footage of her having sex with her boyfriend, that was publicly released. For more details of all this, look up the BBC Panorama report about Azerbaijan – Eurovision’s Dirty Secret.
For a view of Azerbaijan which I think will not be featured in the Eurovision postcards, check out this website: http://etiraz.com/
Despite these problems, on the other hand it is not up
to Eurovision’s performers to address these issues plaguing Azerbaijan. It
should be our Western governments, who claim to be defenders of freedoms, which should
be applying the pressure on the Aliyevs. But of course, they don’t as
Azerbaijan possesses such large reserves of oil and gas, and provides the only
access to Central Asia’s vast natural resources that bypasses Afghanistan, Iran
and Russia. So we have yet another case of hypocrisy here. A balance should be
made here.
I doubt we're going to see the violent break up of anti-Aliyev and anti-corruption demonstrations in the postcards.
Let’s have a great Eurovision, but once the spotlight is off Azerbaijan, let’s not ignore it.
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