Back from Oz! Who's gonna win?

G'day! I back from Oz, and hopefully back to some sort of normality. It has been a very busy time for me working, which has obviously meant that the blog has not been a priority. However now that I am heading back to my routine, I'll get the keyboard fired and share my view.

Australian mainstream society is one scary place, and this is no better reflected in the current election campaign there. As Nick Bryant of the BBC put it recently on his blog, about 12,000 voters in 20 marginal seats in New South Wales and Queensland will essentially decide who will win the election on the 21st August, and two main parties, Labor and Liberal, surely know that. Even if there were to be a huge swing nationwide against Labor, it really doesn't matter if that swing doesn't happen in the marginals. As what happened in the South Australian election in March this year, thanks to a similar targeted campaign on swing voters in key seats, Labor was reelected despite a huge swing against it statewide as it managed to limit that swing, and even gain a little ground, in the marginal seats where it mattered. This is why the current Federal campaign has been focused on just these people.

These people who hold the key to Australia's future don't care about politics but will swallow an inane sound bite that appeals to the prejudices they harbour. So that is why issues such as Australian involvement in Afghanistan or the Republic have not been mentioned, while issues potentially polarising issues like gay marriage or asylum seekers (known erroneously as 'illegal immigrants' in Australia) have taken a conservative stance. So we have seen the crazy scene of an out lesbian speaking out against gay marriage and the racist undertones of 'stopping the boats'. In previous Australian elections, these voters have been swayed by generous promises for handouts such as baby bonuses, which were essentially barely concealed bribes. Today's economic climate does not allow for such largesse, but the Aussie public still waits like hungry penguins for fish. But there's not much Aussies really want to do as they are an apathetic bunch.

So who's going to win on Saturday? If you believe the media, it's a dead heat. But then again, it always seems to be in every election lead up - the suspense helps with sales. However, I'm again with Nick Bryant on the election result. Australia may be frustrated with Labor, but it's not angry at it. Australia is quite predictable and this election will be a repeat of every election for an Australian first term government since the 1930s - the incumbent just narrowly wins. I say the same will happen this Saturday, though Labor will win quite comfortably. Why? Nothing to do with appeal or policies. Solely because your average, non-political Aussie is not in the mood for a change (of faces). I first realised that this was the only true factor back in 1993 at the South Australian election when 12 years of Labor government came to an end. A friend of mine, a person who hardly followed the issues, gave her reasons for voting Liberal: It was time for a change. What change? No idea for her. Just that 12 years was enough. And sure enough, it seems to be that Australian governments last for around 8-12 years.

So Julia Gillard can be rest assured of victory. Not that I am happy because other than the plans for nationwide high speed Internet, Gillard is no visionary (especially on issues like gay marriage). However, she is the lesser of two evils when compared to her main opponent Tony Abbott, as this ad testifies:



I'll end off with the craziest element from this election campaign. The mining companies, whose huge profits from taking away precious materials from crown land end up overseas, have been sponsoring these ludicrous ads stating that if they pay tax, then Aussies will end up 'somehow' paying for it. The reality is the opposite will happen. If the mining companies don't pay this tax, then Aussies will then get whacked. Madness.