An empty airbase in Tajikistan scene of new Central Asian superpower intrigue

Interesting article about the empty Ayni air base in the former Soviet republic of Tajikistan and the latest twists and implications of foreign powers jostling for influence in Central Asia. Located south west from the capital Dushanbe, Ayni had been renovated by the Indians in the mid-noughties but has remained disused since. As the article states, this was seen as a possible start for India's greater ambitions of military superpower status:

"Analysts of India's military suggest those expectations may have been too ambitious. When the base renovations started in 2004, India did not have a clear plan as to how it would eventually utilize the facility, said one source close to the Indian armed forces, whose employer does not allow him to speak on the record. "The point, sadly, remains the same: While the Tajik government has kept doors open, at least in a limited sense, the government here [in India] hasn't quite gotten its act together about precisely what or how to leverage the opportunity," he said.

Some analysts said India's foray into base politics was motivated by a desire to play the role of great power. "India is playing a game," said Imran Baig, a Washington-based analyst of South Asian security. "To maintain a base with no aircraft is not expensive at all," he said. "But to deploy a high-tech fighter squadron full time at a remote location far from the country of origin is a very, very costly affair and can only be afforded by superpowers."

Still, India appears to want to keep the question of its presence at Ayni open. India's president, Pratibha Patil, visited Dushanbe last year, an indicator to both Indian and Tajik experts that India was still trying to court Tajikistan."

Looks like that the GFR of late derailed India's first steps of expanding its military reach beyond the Indian Ocean and immediate vicinity.

The article goes on to suggest that Tajikistan's president Imomolai Rahmon, is applying the same tactics of playing off the various foreign powers with Ayni that the former Kyrgyzstani president Bakiev used with the Manas air base, in order to extract as much gain as possible. However, Rahmon is effectively propped up by Russia and is in no position to say no to his current and historical political patrons .

Considering Tajikistan's position right next to Afghanistan and the precarious future of Manas in Kyrgyzstan, speculation points to possible US use of the base. American officials deny having any interest in the base, despite its advantageous location, but more likely the Russians would not appreciate their client state consenting to US use of Ayni.