1. Armenia - Aram Mp3 - Not Alone
The surprise front runner in the betting stakes. Good, powerful song with reoccurring lyrics so that the majority non-native English audience will get it, but it seems to have been awkwardly constricted into the three-minute limit. One rumour doing the rounds is that if Armenia wins they won't be able to host it so a Plan B involving the contest being hosted in the UK or Poland is in place. I don't believe it for a moment. Next year will be the 100th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide, actually only a few weeks before mid-May, so the Armenians will be itching for the attention, especially as they are still sore over Azerbaijan's win in 2011 and hosting in 2012. I won't be surprised if it does win. Definite qualifier.
2. Latvia - Aarzemnieki - Cake to Bake
While the lyrics are actually quite deep, who's listening to them except for the 'Cake to Bake' part. Not qualifying.
3. Estonia - Tanja - Amazing
Described as a poor man's Euphoria. Just qualifying for being poppy.
4. Sweden - Sanna Nielsen - Undo
The Eurovision fanboy favourite by far. Personally, I don't see what all the fuss is about?? So there's a bit in the chorus where she wails as if she hurt her toe, but other than that, rather boring and cheap song. Still qualifying, because it's Sweden.
She's 29 years old! Sanna Nielsen from Sweden
Nice sentiment but when you get a group of mature hipsters with the ubiquitous long beards looking like they should have given up their dreams of being rock stars at least after becoming fathers for the second time, you're not going to win many people over to your message. If it wasn't for the presentation, I might have taken to this bit of ska, but as it stands, it's not qualifying.
6. Albania - Hersi - One Night's Anger
I actually quite like this one. OK, it sound's a bit like a Seal song, but hey, when hasn't most Eurovision songs not been some sort of US/UK derivative drivel? If Hersi can nail this, then there could a slight chance of going to Saturday, but for now I say it's not qualifying.
7. Russia - Tolmechevy Sisters - Shine
The Russians are not stupid so they know that they are not particularly liked at the moment, especially by the gay core that make up the Eurovision fanboys. No Russian performer was going to risk it all for this, so the Russians got the sisters who won the Junior Eurovision to sing for them. Master stroke as the girls are 17 (under voting age so they can't really be quizzed about politics) and who could boo two blonde girls who look like they would cry the minute someone does. Song-wise, it sounds it was written in 5 minutes, but the Russians knew there was no point going for it. Much to the disgust of some Eurovision fanboys, this will easily qualify, and don't be surprised when Ukraine gives this song good points. However, if there is loud booing for this, then what the detractors have been saying for years that Eurovision is political will become blatantly obvious, only this time it will be at the hands of western Europe and not the east that the booers wrongfully accuse.
Oh shucks! Who could boo these girls?? Russia's Tolmachevy sisters
One word - class! My favourite song by far! Azerbaijan gets unjustified slack for using outsiders to write their songs (no problem though when Germany got Brits and Americans to write Lena's winning song Satellite in 2010), and some orientalist fanboys wish that Azerbaijan do what is expected of them from the west and provide what Wogan used to describe as 'eastern promise' (yawn!). However, Azerbaijan uses Eurovision to display that it's not the stereotype. Few know that Baku was the centre of the Soviet Jazz scene, so this Azeri-infused jazz number by Miss Kazimova is as Baku as you can get. Honestly, this deserves at least a Top 5 in the final!
9. Ukraine - Mariya Yaremchuk - Tick-Tock
Lucky she was from western Ukraine, or else I doubt Mariya would have been in Copenhagen now due to the current murky state of Ukrainian politics. The song is cheap... and with a few kitchen sinks chucked into the performance as a distraction, plus some sympathy (which it needs as it's no good), this will sail into the final.
10. Belgium - Axel Hirsoux - Mother
I'll say it now... 2004 winner Ruslana said in the Belgium final that this will win Eurovision. I regretfully agree. Susan Boyle, 'Got Talent' shows and Upworthy viral videos with titles like 'no one liked the way he looked but see what happened when he started sing' will have a big role to play with this song as we have a larger person with a good (not amazing) voice sing about his mother. Now who doesn't love their mother? I mean, how often have you received that viral photo on Facebook labelled 'like if you love your mother' with already a few million likes. Well, the same with this song - vote for it if you love your mother, blah blah. This song has all the 'nice' and 'sentimental' elements to make it win. So yes, qualifying.
Belgium's Axel Hirsoux being given the Ruslana seal of approval
Another one of my favourites of the year. Very dramatic and theatrical - I strongly believe that based on its theatrical nature this song started its life in Russian. Alas, this is in English and so much could go wrong with it, such as the 'Inglish' used. Unfortunately I don't think it will qualify, but please, prove me wrong.
12. San Marino - Valentina Monetta - Maybe
Back for a third time, this rather dated song by Ralph Siegel (again, and who else) might get the interest of those university professors in the Azeri and Russian juries, among others. Probably struggling with the televoters, but I have this qualifying... probably because I would like this to qualify for Valentina's sake.
13. Portugal - Suzy - Quero ser tua
Low-class Portuguese turbo-folk for the unwashed masses. It will sound like Lambada circa 1989 to Europe. Honestly, that should be a vote winner, but even Europe can see that this is a dime-a-dozen song. Not qualifying.
When all else fails, bring in muscly guy with drum. Portugal's Suzy
Yes, when I think of the Dutch, I immediately think of C&W (the USA wins the Eurovision yet again)...erm. Country music is usually as popular at Eurovision as spam for Christmas dinner, but I think that this time we might be surprised. Not my 'cup of cino' but if well performed, I say it'll be a surprise qualifier - I'm probably wrong.
15. Montenegro - Sergej Ćetković - Moj svijet
Sergej is a well-known (and typically for a Montenegrin, very tall) singer all throughout ex-Yugoslavia. So you can imagine how pissed the Montenegrins would have been when Serbia, Bosnia and Croatia announced that they'll be giving this year's contest a break. So what to do? Oh yes, those Joksimović ballads that everyone outside of the ex-Yugoslavia thinks are 'traditional' (sorry, they're not, and no one listens to that style of music in the Balkans either) always do well, so let's get one of those babies and we'll be sure of our first final spot. Well, sorry, I think Europe is now onto the trick. Not qualifying, unless Europe really does still like those ballads (good grief).
16. Hungary - András Kállay-Sanders - Running
I have a huge issue with this song. The fanboys love it because, apparently, it's modern and original. Wrong and wrong. This song is a rip-off of a huge hit by Bulgarian duet KariZma (Miro, who sang for Bulgaria at Eurovision 2010, and Galya) in 2003 called 'Shte Izbyagam Li Ot Teb', which in English is (and here's a clincher) 'Will I Run Away From You'. Oh, and what a coincidence, the 2003 song, like the Hungarian song 11 years later, is also about child abuse. Don't believe me? Then check it out for yourself, and wait for the chorus to hear the same drum'n'bass background (yeah, that supposedly makes the 2014 Hungarian song to be 'modern'). It even looks like that the Hungarians hired the same child abuser from the Bulgarian video!
So there you have it. No doubt, depending on the various kitchen sinks to be employed by the usual suspects to turn a mediocre song into a visual delight (or distraction), and remember the dulcet tones of Jemini at Eurovision 2003, anything could happen on the night. Still, why think too much about it, so grab yourself a bevvie (a stiff one, even though it's a school night) and enjoy the fact that Europe is not as sophisticated as it seems. Happy Eurovision!
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