Eurovision 2014 - The Big 5 + Denmark - and the Grand Final

The name on everybody's lips is gonna be... Conchita

Hello Eurovision fans! Recovered from Thursday night yet? It took me a while. I predicted 8 out of the 9 that I said would go through, with Georgia not making it through. While watching the show I had thought that Lithuania would make it through, because it had surprisingly done so in past years and the song was 'modern' for Eurovision standards i.e. about 15 years old. I did also put down Slovenia on the night, and it did, solely because of its place in the running order (second-to-last). I put down the running order as the main reason for Switzerland's qualification, as both countries starting with 'S' fielded songs that were not that strong and would have had the same fate those that appeared earlier on in the night had they been on earlier on in the night. Israel was obvious that it would not go through as Mei Feingold's performance appeared self-indulgent, over-theatrical and unconvincing. Georgia was too bonkers for Eurovision. Macedonia's vocals and overall presentation was just off (sorry Tijana, you're a hilarious person, but you're not one for serious songs). Ireland was the train wreck that I had predicted from its inception. Overall, I did not think Semi 2 was that strong. The only stand-out performance was by Miss Wurst of Austria - the timing and choice of visuals were spot on for the old-fashioned song she is singing. Finland I thought put on a sub-par performance only helped by lots of lights, with the Finnish lead singer often having his eyes closed (not engaging the TV audience) and his fake guitar playing smacked of non-chalance. These are factors which will scupper their chances in the big show, but they look like One Direction, so the teenage girls probably helped them in.

Open those eyes boys! Finland's Softengine

Before going on to some finals predictions, I gotta do some reviews of the 'Big 5' and Denmark:

Germany - Elaiza - Is It Right?
No it isn't. Accordions nowadays in a Eurovision act is instant death. Maybe last place. Our German overlords may not be happy with the rest of Europe for that.

France - TWIN TWIN - Moustache
Seems like a decent enough audio track of the likes of LMFAO, but this screams hot mess once it appears on stage.

Italy - Emma Marrone - La mia città
Emma obviously is angry in that recording industry manufactured way. Sounds like an album filler track. It's obvious she can do so much better. Only saving grace for this is that it's in Italian. Middle of the field for this one, I think.

This is not a desperate attempt to get votes off of fans of the Polish performance. Emma Marrone of Italy.

Spain - Ruth Lorenzo - Dancing In The Rain
Ruth Lorenzo from UK X Factor happens to be that Ruth Lorenzo from X Factor. Based on what she was singing on UK X Factor, you'd think she would be singing the Italian song. Actually no, it's seems like a ballad that Celine Dion rejected some years ago. The Spaniards get teary and emotional for this. I think the song does not suit her. But Miss Lorenzo from X Factor has been allocated a good pozzie, so that will go in her favour. Let's see if the UK and Irish crowd remember her when they get to vote. If sung well, which Ruth from X Factor can do, then it's top 10, but I did predict fellow Spaniard Pastora Soler to win 2 years ago with a better song, better voice and coming from around the same running order position... and she came 10th.

Denmark - Basim - Cliché Love Song
How nice of 2007 ESC winner Marija Šerifović to have come back and sing for Denmark... oops, you mean that's not her? Oh, easy mistake to make. People are raving about this supposedly 'original', supposedly '70's' song, while others see it for what it is - a Bruno Mars rip-off. Coming late in the night, it will probably do what every host dreams - high on the scoreboard but no win.

UK - Molly Smitten-Downes - Children of the Universe
Living in the UK, you get to experience a weird phenomenon each year leading up to Eurovision. For a country that supposedly doesn't care about Eurovision (well, most of the country has no idea what this year's song sounds like), in the week before the grand final, the UK populace (well, the fanboys) are beyond convinced that the UK has sent the winning song that talk even starts of where the UK will hold the contest next year. Well, no more for me. If you read my predictions from the past three years, you'll see that I too have been sucked in by this hysteria only to see songs by performers who are apparently 'so big in Germany' that it is inconceivable that they not get a top 10 finish end up at the bottom of the scoreboard. So this year I am saying what I really feel - this ode to slacktivism is so contrived with its empty 'Power to the People' refrain and no proper chorus that even coming on last on the night and a pyro shower will not save this song. I can see bottom 5 for this, followed by the usual lashing out that the Eurovision is just for freaks like Fraulein Wurst and that it's all political blah blah because Europe hates the UK. I'm already bracing myself for the onslaught.

Styling alert! It's feathers and leathers. The UK's Molly 

So, what to expect tonight? Well, for the first time since 2011 expect the unexpected. There is no clear winner, though in my books I say that Austria and the Netherlands are the ones to watch, but even with these two songs there is no certainty. Bookies favourites Armenia and Sweden are so early on in the show and their performances are just not that great enough that I can't seen them winning. What has made predicting so hard in the final is the new vote tallying system where all placings from 1 to 26 are considered, rather than the top 10 for each country's jury and televote. This last year saw countries like the winner Denmark that gained low televote shares but scored on the top of jury rankings get very high votes, and vice-versa and every way you go. So I'll just make a rough guess and see how I go:

Wildcard. Poland - you can never underestimate the power of breasts and pan-Slavism, and it'll be curious to see whether the straight guy and 'protest Conchita' vote will make an impact.
10. Ukraine - because of the hamster wheel
9. Russia - It's very well staged, and will prove that Western Europe is also political about its voting
8. Sweden - because it's Sweden, though coming after an ad break could scupper its chances. This is where Poland might end up instead.
7. Greece - a hot cup of mess but televoters always seem to like the Greek songs for their energy
6. Malta - I wish Richie could blink a little more as he's scary otherwise
5. Spain - because it's that Ruth from X Factor
4. Armenia - the Sovietsphere will help this song to this position, despite Aram not singing it well
3. Denmark - just going with the flow
2. Austria - I think people all over Europe will be equally wowed and appalled by this. The shock of the night will be when Conchita gets more votes from the east of Vienna than what people west of Vienna would expect
1. the Netherlands - because it ticks all the music boxes, everyone loves an underdog, and it doesn't matter what genre the song is so long as the performers give a credible performance to get their message across, which is what this song does. The only problem is how insufferable the Dutch fans will become after their country wins.

Now, please no booing! No one wants politics in Eurovision, whether it be points swapping between Greece and Cyprus or persecuting 17 year old girls for coming from a country that some people have been conditioned to hate, so if you want to avoid putting another nail in the Eurovision coffin, be polite.

Happy Eurovision! And to get you in the mood, here's a nice shot of the Ukrainian hamster wheel guy...