Eurovision 2014 - The Big 5 + Denmark - and the Grand Final

The name on everybody's lips is gonna be... Conchita

Hello Eurovision fans! Recovered from Thursday night yet? It took me a while. I predicted 8 out of the 9 that I said would go through, with Georgia not making it through. While watching the show I had thought that Lithuania would make it through, because it had surprisingly done so in past years and the song was 'modern' for Eurovision standards i.e. about 15 years old. I did also put down Slovenia on the night, and it did, solely because of its place in the running order (second-to-last). I put down the running order as the main reason for Switzerland's qualification, as both countries starting with 'S' fielded songs that were not that strong and would have had the same fate those that appeared earlier on in the night had they been on earlier on in the night. Israel was obvious that it would not go through as Mei Feingold's performance appeared self-indulgent, over-theatrical and unconvincing. Georgia was too bonkers for Eurovision. Macedonia's vocals and overall presentation was just off (sorry Tijana, you're a hilarious person, but you're not one for serious songs). Ireland was the train wreck that I had predicted from its inception. Overall, I did not think Semi 2 was that strong. The only stand-out performance was by Miss Wurst of Austria - the timing and choice of visuals were spot on for the old-fashioned song she is singing. Finland I thought put on a sub-par performance only helped by lots of lights, with the Finnish lead singer often having his eyes closed (not engaging the TV audience) and his fake guitar playing smacked of non-chalance. These are factors which will scupper their chances in the big show, but they look like One Direction, so the teenage girls probably helped them in.

Open those eyes boys! Finland's Softengine

Before going on to some finals predictions, I gotta do some reviews of the 'Big 5' and Denmark:

Germany - Elaiza - Is It Right?
No it isn't. Accordions nowadays in a Eurovision act is instant death. Maybe last place. Our German overlords may not be happy with the rest of Europe for that.

France - TWIN TWIN - Moustache
Seems like a decent enough audio track of the likes of LMFAO, but this screams hot mess once it appears on stage.

Italy - Emma Marrone - La mia città
Emma obviously is angry in that recording industry manufactured way. Sounds like an album filler track. It's obvious she can do so much better. Only saving grace for this is that it's in Italian. Middle of the field for this one, I think.

This is not a desperate attempt to get votes off of fans of the Polish performance. Emma Marrone of Italy.

Spain - Ruth Lorenzo - Dancing In The Rain
Ruth Lorenzo from UK X Factor happens to be that Ruth Lorenzo from X Factor. Based on what she was singing on UK X Factor, you'd think she would be singing the Italian song. Actually no, it's seems like a ballad that Celine Dion rejected some years ago. The Spaniards get teary and emotional for this. I think the song does not suit her. But Miss Lorenzo from X Factor has been allocated a good pozzie, so that will go in her favour. Let's see if the UK and Irish crowd remember her when they get to vote. If sung well, which Ruth from X Factor can do, then it's top 10, but I did predict fellow Spaniard Pastora Soler to win 2 years ago with a better song, better voice and coming from around the same running order position... and she came 10th.

Denmark - Basim - Cliché Love Song
How nice of 2007 ESC winner Marija Šerifović to have come back and sing for Denmark... oops, you mean that's not her? Oh, easy mistake to make. People are raving about this supposedly 'original', supposedly '70's' song, while others see it for what it is - a Bruno Mars rip-off. Coming late in the night, it will probably do what every host dreams - high on the scoreboard but no win.

UK - Molly Smitten-Downes - Children of the Universe
Living in the UK, you get to experience a weird phenomenon each year leading up to Eurovision. For a country that supposedly doesn't care about Eurovision (well, most of the country has no idea what this year's song sounds like), in the week before the grand final, the UK populace (well, the fanboys) are beyond convinced that the UK has sent the winning song that talk even starts of where the UK will hold the contest next year. Well, no more for me. If you read my predictions from the past three years, you'll see that I too have been sucked in by this hysteria only to see songs by performers who are apparently 'so big in Germany' that it is inconceivable that they not get a top 10 finish end up at the bottom of the scoreboard. So this year I am saying what I really feel - this ode to slacktivism is so contrived with its empty 'Power to the People' refrain and no proper chorus that even coming on last on the night and a pyro shower will not save this song. I can see bottom 5 for this, followed by the usual lashing out that the Eurovision is just for freaks like Fraulein Wurst and that it's all political blah blah because Europe hates the UK. I'm already bracing myself for the onslaught.

Styling alert! It's feathers and leathers. The UK's Molly 

So, what to expect tonight? Well, for the first time since 2011 expect the unexpected. There is no clear winner, though in my books I say that Austria and the Netherlands are the ones to watch, but even with these two songs there is no certainty. Bookies favourites Armenia and Sweden are so early on in the show and their performances are just not that great enough that I can't seen them winning. What has made predicting so hard in the final is the new vote tallying system where all placings from 1 to 26 are considered, rather than the top 10 for each country's jury and televote. This last year saw countries like the winner Denmark that gained low televote shares but scored on the top of jury rankings get very high votes, and vice-versa and every way you go. So I'll just make a rough guess and see how I go:

Wildcard. Poland - you can never underestimate the power of breasts and pan-Slavism, and it'll be curious to see whether the straight guy and 'protest Conchita' vote will make an impact.
10. Ukraine - because of the hamster wheel
9. Russia - It's very well staged, and will prove that Western Europe is also political about its voting
8. Sweden - because it's Sweden, though coming after an ad break could scupper its chances. This is where Poland might end up instead.
7. Greece - a hot cup of mess but televoters always seem to like the Greek songs for their energy
6. Malta - I wish Richie could blink a little more as he's scary otherwise
5. Spain - because it's that Ruth from X Factor
4. Armenia - the Sovietsphere will help this song to this position, despite Aram not singing it well
3. Denmark - just going with the flow
2. Austria - I think people all over Europe will be equally wowed and appalled by this. The shock of the night will be when Conchita gets more votes from the east of Vienna than what people west of Vienna would expect
1. the Netherlands - because it ticks all the music boxes, everyone loves an underdog, and it doesn't matter what genre the song is so long as the performers give a credible performance to get their message across, which is what this song does. The only problem is how insufferable the Dutch fans will become after their country wins.

Now, please no booing! No one wants politics in Eurovision, whether it be points swapping between Greece and Cyprus or persecuting 17 year old girls for coming from a country that some people have been conditioned to hate, so if you want to avoid putting another nail in the Eurovision coffin, be polite.

Happy Eurovision! And to get you in the mood, here's a nice shot of the Ukrainian hamster wheel guy...

Eurovision 2014 - Semi Final 2 predictions

The disused wharf-cum-Eurovision venue. Scrubbed up well.

Well, what a night last night. I got eight out of ten, but mind you I did pick two (San Marino and the Netherlands) which according to preliminary reports were dead certs not to qualify. However, the Netherlands was the performance of the night. Easily it was the most authentic and convincing performance, reminding me of the simplicity and genuineness of 1994 Eurovision winner 'Rock'n'Roll Kids'. Belgium, who I had tipped to win, was presented horribly, so no surprise for it bowing out. I honestly believe that Armenia and Hungary were among the worst of the night - horrible vocals and unconvincing performances. Armenia a favourite? I'll be the judge of that. Russia's performance was fantastic, but disgusting to hear the booing from the partisan crowd when announced that the big country had qualified to the final. A case of western Europeans displaying the poor behaviour they usually level at eastern Europeans (there were no boos when Russia or Azerbaijan hosted the event). Iceland's performance was well done and I can see why they made it through, plus kids love colour and they televote. And what was with all that gold costuming? Albania, seriously?? Must add that I am so glad that it was third-time lucky for Valentina Monetta of San Marino - she deserved it!

Performers of the night: The Common Linnets from the Netherlands

Anyway, it's now semi final 2 time, and going by the semi final 1 results, anything can happen. Let's review...

1. Malta - Firelight - Coming Home
So this is a Mumford & Sons soundalike dedicated to the 100th anniversary of the start of World War I. Well, for many parts of Europe, World War I has very little significance these days, so that won't resonate. Fine enough song, though spoiled by the female solo in the middle. It'll probably go through then.

2. Israel - Mei Feingold - Same Heart
Catchy song, with Mei having forgotten to put on her skirt in the clip. However, I just find that Mei is a little too scary, and scary scary (as opposed to playful scary of Lordi) is usually a turn-off at Eurovision (Evrodiki for Cyprus, for one). Despite being very popular with the fanboys, I think that Mei's scariness, the somewhat darkness of the song and coming in second on the night will see this song not make it into the final. The hubby will be upset.

3. Norway - Carl Espen - Silent Storm
I happen to like this lamenting ballad by gentle giant Carl, even if it ends abruptly (cut to fit in the three minutes). I think the juries will love this, so long as Carl sings this well. Had it been later on it would be a definite, but I say now it's scraping in.

Gentle giant, Norway's Carl Espen

4. Georgia - The Shin and Mariko - Three Minutes to Earth
The hippy feeling of early 70s San Francisco is happening in Tbilisi, so it seems. This song has been much derided by fans and the bookies, with some saying it's coming last. However, even though I am no fan of the song, I do know that there are still many prog rock fans especially in Eastern Europe. Also, don't discount votes coming in from Belarus, Lithuania and Poland. So I see this song actually qualifying. Yes, I'm as mad as Mariko's wailing.

5. Poland - Donatan and Cleo - My Slowanie/We Are Slavic
If you like a bit of tits and arse of the female variety, mixed with tones of pan-Slavic superiority, then are you in for a treat. Definitely for the dads and Slavic nationalists. This song has been hugely popular in Poland and has been getting much pre-contest publicity (always a plus). Rap doesn't do well at Eurovision, but we may have a change here. I say it's going to the final. Be sure to cover your kids eyes though.

6. Austria - Conchita Wurst - Rise Like A Phoenix
So Austria has decided to send a bearded drag queen to Eurovision. Honestly, are we really that shocked by it all? What has been most shocking is that western Europeans have been making so much of how supposedly eastern Europeans has sooo much of a problem with this act that even on-line petitions have been started. Well, let's see.... the Belarusian petition has a total of 4000 signatures, which out a population of 9 million is hardly significant. Nothing outside of Austria has been mentioned that up until a few days ago there were far more Austrians who were part of the 'Nein zu Conchita Wurst' Facebook page than on her counterpart FB fan page. I think gender bending of this nature has equal discomfort in most parts of the world, especially since the 1980s as it now has a more general association with homosexuality when for centuries men in dresses was seen simply seen as a lark with little sexual connotation. Let's move away from social politics and let me say that the whole presentation of this song, with its Bond-theme arrangement, has been best tailored for the 'Got Talent' audience, which is the main Eurovision viewing core, and this was something that Belgium failed to capitalise on. Miss Wurst has gained much publicity pre-contest so it will be extremely shocking if she doesn't make it into the final. I mean, she's practically this year's headliner.

The Kardashians aren't ashamed of slight hormonal problems... oops, that's Conchita Wurst

7. Lithuania - Vilija Matačiūnaitė - Attention
Well, she'll be needing some as this will not go down well. No Baltics at this final.

8. Finland - Softengine - Something Better
You'd think they could have done 'something better' (ho ho, ha ha). Enough of the tired jokes, this is about 10 years ago, so that makes it modern for Eurovision standards. Nice looking guys doing a nice enough song. To the final it goes.

9. Ireland - Can-Linn feat. Kasey Smith - Heartbeat
A Ryanair version of last year's winner. The Irish selection show was boring as batshit until things got heaty, with Linda Martin and the handbags at dawn tottering her way to ... whoever he was... and they almost settled their differences out with some on-air biff! Now folks, that's entertainment (Jerry Springer knew what he was doing). Anyway, seeing that the Irish think that Europe is oh as enamoured about Irish culture as they are (just a hint, Ireland, we're not), we have an Irish-tinged flimsy pop song with two big blouses kicking up a storm in the background. You'd think they'd learnt from last year when they did the same thing and came dead last, but oh no. So won't the Irish be shocked when this doesn't make it to the final, because do you really believe people to the west of Paris will be voting for this??

If Ireland could ditch their act and get Linda Martin to tell someone off on stage instead, I'd vote for that.

10. Belarus - Teo - Cheesecake
OK, so you've probably already seen the reports of Teo being some sort of Belarusian Robin Thicke rip-off. Well, regardless, I think this song will make the final. I mean, who else will Georgia and Lithuania be voting for? And it's fun in that cringy way.

11. Macedonia - Tijana - To The Sky
When Macedonia announced as the main news item of the day many moons ago on the main TV station that Tijana would sing at Eurovision, the boffins at MKTV were so expecting that with the Belgrade-resident, married to Montenegrin, Bosnian mother Tijana, who's happens to be a well-known singer and TV presenter, would be raking in the ex-Yugo votes. Alas, with three of the big ex-Yu countries giving this year a miss, plans had to be changed, so that's why we have this song sung in English. It's a perfect example of what Macedonian composers think is something that people worldwide would like. But hey, they so don't get it. Tijana is a great performer, and the song is ok, but when you get Macedonian TV to do everything else, well, it's like getting your grandmother to design your party dress. As much as I would be jumping up and down in patriotic fervour if it makes it, I'm pretty much resigned to it coming in 11th.

12. Switzerland - Sebalter - Hunter of Stars
Whistling and too cheery. Nah.

We all like whistling said no one at Eurovision. Swiss whistler Sebalter.

13. Greece - Freaky Fortune feat. RiskkyKid - Rise Up
Great start to this song, but that's it. There's no chorus, middle or proper end to it. It's like they went 'OK, let's compose a song' and it ended up being 9 minutes long, so they just cut it at the 3 minute mark. Still, it'll get the crowd going and for most this will be the first time that they'll hear Balkan brass being mixed into something clubby, so it'll sound 'original'. It's going to the final.

14. Slovenia - Tinkara Kovač - Round and Round
I've warmed to this song of late, but most of Europe would have not. It's decent enough, but the song sounds eerily similar to Lithuania's earlier in the night (who knows, familiarity by this time might breed the opposite of contempt), but Slovenia really has a tough time grabbing attention, so I say it's missing out again. Better luck next time with a Ukrainian hamster wheel.

15. Romania - Paula Seling and OVI - Miracle
Yes, the Romanian scary couple from 2010 are back (such variety TV show presenters - she's the beautiful one while he's the ugly lech with the bad hair). A few kitchen sinks have been chucked in but I say this will make it into the final because the juries and televoters will think by now that they've only picked nine out of ten favs so by default this one becomes number 10.

Romania's Paula Seling (left) goes for a soft, natural look, while OVI (right) is... erm.. well, he likes capital letters.

You know, based on what we saw on Tuesday night, I'm probably completely wrong. I'll keep my finger on the pulse for those zany (but usually true) voting rumours, and I'll be back before Saturday to give you my simple thoughts on the big 5 + Denmark and who I think will win (no bloody idea as yet... could be Georgia or even one of the countries that have already been eliminated for all I know). Happy Eurovision! P.s. don't boo!

Eurovision 2014 - Semi Final 1 predictions

Yes, it's that time of the year. It's Eurovision week, and Copenhagen is hosting it again, after what if had some other less respected country had done the same would have been considered a bit of a stitch job. Oh well, all water under the bridge now and well forgotten by the masses. I'm keeping my predictions brief this year, so here is my look at the songs for semi final 1:

1. Armenia - Aram Mp3 - Not Alone
The surprise front runner in the betting stakes. Good, powerful song with reoccurring lyrics so that the majority non-native English audience will get it, but it seems to have been awkwardly constricted into the three-minute limit. One rumour doing the rounds is that if Armenia wins they won't be able to host it so a Plan B involving the contest being hosted in the UK or Poland is in place. I don't believe it for a moment. Next year will be the 100th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide, actually only a few weeks before mid-May, so the Armenians will be itching for the attention, especially as they are still sore over Azerbaijan's win in 2011 and hosting in 2012. I won't be surprised if it does win. Definite qualifier.

2. Latvia - Aarzemnieki - Cake to Bake
While the lyrics are actually quite deep, who's listening to them except for the 'Cake to Bake' part. Not qualifying.

3. Estonia - Tanja - Amazing
Described as a poor man's Euphoria. Just qualifying for being poppy.

4. Sweden - Sanna Nielsen - Undo
The Eurovision fanboy favourite by far. Personally, I don't see what all the fuss is about?? So there's a bit in the chorus where she wails as if she hurt her toe, but other than that, rather boring and cheap song. Still qualifying, because it's Sweden.

She's 29 years old! Sanna Nielsen from Sweden

5. Iceland - Pollapönk - No Prejudice
Nice sentiment but when you get a group of mature hipsters with the ubiquitous long beards looking like they should have given up their dreams of being rock stars at least after becoming fathers for the second time, you're not going to win many people over to your message. If it wasn't for the presentation, I might have taken to this bit of ska, but as it stands, it's not qualifying.

6. Albania - Hersi - One Night's Anger
I actually quite like this one. OK, it sound's a bit like a Seal song, but hey, when hasn't most Eurovision songs not been some sort of US/UK derivative drivel? If Hersi can nail this, then there could a slight chance of going to Saturday, but for now I say it's not qualifying.

7. Russia - Tolmechevy Sisters - Shine
The Russians are not stupid so they know that they are not particularly liked at the moment, especially by the gay core that make up the Eurovision fanboys. No Russian performer was going to risk it all for this, so the Russians got the sisters who won the Junior Eurovision to sing for them. Master stroke as the girls are 17 (under voting age so they can't really be quizzed about politics) and who could boo two blonde girls who look like they would cry the minute someone does. Song-wise, it sounds it was written in 5 minutes, but the Russians knew there was no point going for it. Much to the disgust of some Eurovision fanboys, this will easily qualify, and don't be surprised when Ukraine gives this song good points. However, if there is loud booing for this, then what the detractors have been saying for years that Eurovision is political will become blatantly obvious, only this time it will be at the hands of western Europe and not the east that the booers wrongfully accuse.

Oh shucks! Who could boo these girls?? Russia's Tolmachevy sisters

8. Azerbaijan - Dilara Kazimova - Start The Fire
One word - class! My favourite song by far! Azerbaijan gets unjustified slack for using outsiders to write their songs (no problem though when Germany got Brits and Americans to write Lena's winning song Satellite in 2010), and some orientalist fanboys wish that Azerbaijan do what is expected of them from the west and provide what Wogan used to describe as 'eastern promise' (yawn!). However, Azerbaijan uses Eurovision to display that it's not the stereotype. Few know that Baku was the centre of the Soviet Jazz scene, so this Azeri-infused jazz number by Miss Kazimova is as Baku as you can get. Honestly, this deserves at least a Top 5 in the final!

9. Ukraine - Mariya Yaremchuk - Tick-Tock
Lucky she was from western Ukraine, or else I doubt Mariya would have been in Copenhagen now due to the current murky state of Ukrainian politics. The song is cheap... and with a few kitchen sinks chucked into the performance as a distraction, plus some sympathy (which it needs as it's no good), this will sail into the final.

10. Belgium - Axel Hirsoux - Mother
I'll say it now... 2004 winner Ruslana said in the Belgium final that this will win Eurovision. I regretfully agree. Susan Boyle, 'Got Talent' shows and Upworthy viral videos with titles like 'no one liked the way he looked but see what happened when he started sing' will have a big role to play with this song as we have a larger person with a good (not amazing) voice sing about his mother. Now who doesn't love their mother? I mean, how often have you received that viral photo on Facebook labelled 'like if you love your mother' with already a few million likes. Well, the same with this song - vote for it if you love your mother, blah blah. This song has all the 'nice' and 'sentimental' elements to make it win. So yes, qualifying.

Belgium's Axel Hirsoux being given the Ruslana seal of approval

11. Moldova - Cristina Scarlat - Wild Soul
Another one of my favourites of the year. Very dramatic and theatrical - I strongly believe that based on its theatrical nature this song started its life in Russian. Alas, this is in English and so much could go wrong with it, such as the 'Inglish' used. Unfortunately I don't think it will qualify, but please, prove me wrong.

12. San Marino - Valentina Monetta - Maybe
Back for a third time, this rather dated song by Ralph Siegel (again, and who else) might get the interest of those university professors in the Azeri and Russian juries, among others. Probably struggling with the televoters, but I have this qualifying... probably because I would like this to qualify for Valentina's sake.

13. Portugal - Suzy - Quero ser tua
Low-class Portuguese turbo-folk for the unwashed masses. It will sound like Lambada circa 1989 to Europe. Honestly, that should be a vote winner, but even Europe can see that this is a dime-a-dozen song. Not qualifying.

When all else fails, bring in muscly guy with drum. Portugal's Suzy

14. The Netherlands - The Common Linnets - The Calm After The Storm
Yes, when I think of the Dutch, I immediately think of C&W (the USA wins the Eurovision yet again)...erm. Country music is usually as popular at Eurovision as spam for Christmas dinner, but I think that this time we might be surprised. Not my 'cup of cino' but if well performed, I say it'll be a surprise qualifier - I'm probably wrong.

15. Montenegro - Sergej Ćetković - Moj svijet
Sergej is a well-known (and typically for a Montenegrin, very tall) singer all throughout ex-Yugoslavia. So you can imagine how pissed the Montenegrins would have been when Serbia, Bosnia and Croatia announced that they'll be giving this year's contest a break. So what to do? Oh yes, those Joksimović ballads that everyone outside of the ex-Yugoslavia thinks are 'traditional' (sorry, they're not, and no one listens to that style of music in the Balkans either) always do well, so let's get one of those babies and we'll be sure of our first final spot. Well, sorry, I think Europe is now onto the trick. Not qualifying, unless Europe really does still like those ballads (good grief).

16. Hungary - András Kállay-Sanders - Running
I have a huge issue with this song. The fanboys love it because, apparently, it's modern and original. Wrong and wrong. This song is a rip-off of a huge hit by Bulgarian duet KariZma (Miro, who sang for Bulgaria at Eurovision 2010, and Galya) in 2003 called 'Shte Izbyagam Li Ot Teb', which in English is (and here's a clincher) 'Will I Run Away From You'. Oh, and what a coincidence, the 2003 song, like the Hungarian song 11 years later, is also about child abuse. Don't believe me? Then check it out for yourself, and wait for the chorus to hear the same drum'n'bass background (yeah, that supposedly makes the 2014 Hungarian song to be 'modern'). It even looks like that the Hungarians hired the same child abuser from the Bulgarian video!

Still, how many people outside of Bulgaria have seen this song to matter? Hardly anyone. So yes, this song will be considered 'modern' and 'original' to most of the viewers (but so is anything at Eurovision that's about 10 years ago) and coast into the final. But is it a winner - not a chance. 'Issues' at Eurovision never win.

So there you have it. No doubt, depending on the various kitchen sinks to be employed by the usual suspects to turn a mediocre song into a visual delight (or distraction), and remember the dulcet tones of Jemini at Eurovision 2003, anything could happen on the night. Still, why think too much about it, so grab yourself a bevvie (a stiff one, even though it's a school night) and enjoy the fact that Europe is not as sophisticated as it seems. Happy Eurovision!